Causal pathways: A shared understanding

This 2022 document by members of the Causal Pathways Initiative articulates a shared understanding of the concept of “causal pathways'' in evaluation and strategy.

A causal pathway is understood as "The direct and indirect relationships between causal factors and changes (intended, unintended or unchanged) in a system."

The document explains the value of identifying and investigating causal pathways to better understand how change (or lack of change) has occurred and hence provide better evidence to inform future decisions.

Causal pathways can apply in three different situations:

1. Primarily testing a pre-planned theory of change (with its specific outcomes)
2. Explicitly testing the theory of change and exploring unintended outcomes
3. Exploring how change is happening more broadly in the system, and then identifying where there is evidence of a given causal factor(s) contributing to those changes.

“The discovery of causal pathways is inherently about finding mechanisms by which change is happening (or is prevented). Mapping these mechanisms makes visible what different stakeholders understand about the causal pathways, how different causal mechanisms are interlinked, and where causal factors have had influence within these pathways. Examination and assessment of causal pathways can help reveal new opportunities to address systemic problems and make visible how different perspectives understand the changes taking place.”