Impact of climate change and development scenarios on flow patterns in the Okavango River

This paper analyses the water flow patterns of the Okavango River in order to develop a water resource management tool that can be used to assess the impact of climate change on the river.

"The aim of the work presented in this paper, conducted under the EU-funded WERRD project (Water and Ecosystem Resources in Regional Development – Balancing Societal Needs and Wants and Natural Systems Sustainability in International River Basin Systems), is to lay the ground for the use of scenario modelling as a tool for integrated water resource management in the Okavango basin.  The relative importance of various potential developments and of climate change on the river flow are assessed, uncertainties in the assumptions used for scenario developments are discussed, as well as the requirements for successful implementation and operational use of scenario modelling as a tool for integrated water resource management.

This project has provided a modelling framework for the operational implementation of integrated assessments of water resources in the Okavango River basin. The linkage of the hydrological model system and climatological, physiographic, and anthropogenic databases enables descriptions of present day conditions and the impacts on river flow of various possible development and climate change scenarios. The main outcome of the study is to indicate the relative impact of a range of possible development and climate change scenarios, and view these in relation to the natural variability of the flow regime. Various degrees of uncertainty are linked to the assumptions used in the definition of the scenarios." (Andersson, Wilk, Todd, Hughes, Earle, Kniveton, Layberry, & Savenije 2006) 

Contents

Specific methods mentioned

• Hydrological Modeling Strategy – p. 4-6
• Workshop – p. 7
• Literature Review – p. 7
• Global Climate Models – p. 10
• Pitman Hydrological Model – p. 10
• Hargreaves Equation – p. 12